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S Illinois | The look back is to determine what weather factors aka “weather adjusted” go into yield. So with normal weather yield can be estimated.
Yield distribution is not equal. That’s to say poor weather is more detrimental to yield than good weather is to push yield. There can never be a year good enough to balance a 2012. So a 2012 has an oversized pull on trend. To combat this weather adjustment is used.
Famers are the only ones who who follow these numbers so closely(and don’t understand them besides) and think a bushel change is market mover. So chalk it up to ignorance much like basis and spread, farmers just like to complain and not learn. | |
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El nino
