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South Central Iowa | We gapped and gapped under our descending channel that we have been in for 8 days, but like you say, we picked up support pretty quickly. Big volume at open and it has turned quiet.
If it wasn't for the stock market, I would be tempted to blame this on Brazilian harvest pressure. They do hedge in our market right?
On Friday I was confused by how weak yet sustained our downtrend was. So what I did was take some profits on some shorts and made a spread with my new crop shorts and some long Mays I picked up. My ratio was not perfect, long 5 and short 8, but that is more how the market has been moving in the old to new soybeans. I might suggest you match your shorts with an offsetting long so that you lock in those profits and are covered either way. Then when you see more direction, even as soon as tomorrow, you can leg out and hop on the bandwagon. Or if you are like me, you can try to ride that direction that is determined to its maximum extent. Then leg out and take profits on the winning side, and then accumulate a greater position at that extreme, thusly moving your aggregate to a closer position that is more likely to become profitable as well in the corrective move. There is the risk that you leg out too quickly or that there is not a corrective move with that strategy, so you are warned.
Good Luck!
Edited by Conan the Farmer 1/29/2017 22:18
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bean flag or downtrend
