Again I don't want to pick on a neighbor on an internet site.. that would be rude and I wouldn't like it either..

I believe the story is that they picked up this sand piece recently.. and it's new to them.. either they don't have the equipment or.. the learning curve on it.. "golly this sucker will blow.."  uh huh...

It's really sandy and the previous farmer was very careful about tillage.. also we were all over the map on rainfall here.. north of town it rained so much during June and July that they didn't get all of the wheat harvested.. story was a neighbor had like 300 acres left after the 4th of July.. all the rest of us were done.. but he got.. probably 2 more 2"+ soakers that went through that missed us..

so.. sand with a little bit dryer.. with a newbe.. or "new to me" farmer are.. you know.. having issues.. and I've BEEN THERE ALSO.. "whoopsie.. shouldn't have done that.."

IT's NOT ALL of the CROP.. probably less than 2%.. but the "whoopsie's" the "we're pushing our luck" fields are starting to show it.. which is my point..

Maybe it gets better.. and the declines stop.. maybe it doesn't..??

In 2009 we had beau coup wonderful crops.. 2010 we were HUNTING to find Storage.. by August of 2011 we were cooked.. I made it through then because I had grain in the bin.. and $4 corn contracts that I had to buy in at $6.00.. "whoops.."

Now below I replied to Sat..

So I visited with my nephew from California over the holidays.. Weather guru's out there told him..

"2017 will be like 2011 for California.. which means rain.."

Whatever that means for the rest of us...???  

My Nephew is a crop scout.. and whatever is going on in Cali.. really doesn't have much relevance to us.. 'cept maybe the weather.. Golly you just mention the word "2011" and guys here crawl into the fetal position and grabbing their blanky..

???

So surely we got our "worst drought in 50 years" out of the way for awhile..

and flip side maybe we just skate by again like last year.. with just in time beau coup wonderful rains..

.. or not...

It's a little too early to start hitting the panic button.. but.. not saying we're not gonna hit it either..

I don't know..

Most ALL of my wheat is up.. SOME of it looks REALLY GOOD.. I have half the irrigated acres as I did last year.. doesn't pencil.. and hence half the double crop potential.. which is why I believe US acres will be down.. Wheat acres ARE DOWN.. therefore US DOUBLE CROP acres will be DOWN.. therefore TOTAL US PLANTED ACRES will be down.. a little.. 300,000 acres.. 500 k.. maybe a myn...???

but last year's wheat crop acres were down AND we got RAINS.. and the WHEAT CROP was UP.. So we CUT EVEN MORE ACRES this year...

... and those who raised a crop.. either are earning the carry.. or like Grandpa.. waiting for a failure.. to wit the rest of ya can sell it out under neath us.. if ya want..

but you might have to come buy it from us later...

.. and we'll be ready..   hmmm.. $6.00..  $7.00..  or more..??

one way or the other... 

to answer your question.. you guys may struggle for things to dry out and warm up.. we struggle with moisture.. "well if it rains.. we'll go plant some more.. double crop.. stubble back.. etc.."  we're at the opposite end of the spectrum.. "too dry.. just summerfallow and go to corn or sorghum next year..." 

repeating from below.. 

We have to be opportunistic in these markets in order to squeeze out enough money to pay the bills..

by that I mean.. enough 1234 and JonSCKs bullheadedness to stand in there and WAIT for a good rally to price into.. enough Sat and Maize smarts TO PRICE IT when that opportunity comes.. enough Ray J and (he's gone but Tara..) savy to work the spreads etc.. have the skepticism that prices are gonna be wonderful all the time.. (basically BS to Jon SCKs sunny optimisim all the time..) and savy enough to follow our chartist.. to set objectives to hit..

whom am I leaving out?

well anyway..

I don't intend my posts to be the end all be all.. just "part of the story.."  and somewhat "balance" to the "trendline to the moon prices to $0.01" bs that goes on some of the time here...