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Buxton ND | Just that was general comments.
Hill what I mean,
This morning I posted about cracks in the armor in meal. Go fish or go dig means in this morning exports sales report. Sale were were lite side 37% below last week and 52% below the last 4 week average, ear perk for me. We've had a sharp $100 + rally, US $$$ strong and the REAL/Peso weak (I watch for this) (( I dont care if it makes "THE headlines)) which has lead to meal sales cancellation, NOT net calculations so they will not show up when it becomes past history.
Taking this one step farther, beans rally, farmers stop selling, meal sky rockers, the hoof and feather still need to eat out on the east coast. I have not heard a word but with market structure above (toss in cheap ocean freight) would not surprise me if more meal would be imported. You won't hear this in the headlines, the bulls sure don't wanna hear but it is part of looking at the market realistically.
The "time" is the time line when this rally will end. Beans will not fall out of bed falling say a buck until most of then are in the ground. There is decades of history behind this, spring time rally, get the beans in the ground then prices does a crash and burn 2013 and 2014 are prefect example of this.
Margins requirement were will be raised. This means for ALL positions in meal you must anti- up more money to play, more money to hold your positions whether new or old one. History says when this happens the top is near/ing. Bean Oil totally fell out of bed today***** sell oil, buy meal has been a huge factor in this meal run-up HUGE this has nothing to do with demand, demand demand and EVERYTHING to do with spread traders. "My We're Leaving" comment,,,,, HAS BEEN applied***** On the spec money side 2 weeks ago they were all time time record net LONG, one NEVER wants to buy a market when there near or at a all time high NEVER IMVSO. The diehard bull do not wanna hear any of this they just wanna post pictures of combines sitting in water :o)
Then put that money flow to beans, they are or are very near, possible are a all time record net LONG. Do you want to buy or sell beans ? ? ?
I will give you 2 weeks fair warning, I will more then likely start using the words "We're Leaving" in soybeans. | |
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Bull Flag
