Centre county Pennsylvania, USA | Models for US use high quality yield and production historical data as well as high quality June through July climate data as predictor variables. USDA and NOAA provide that high quality historical data for US corn belt and all corn/soybean producing states. Haven't looked for similar high quality data for SA (Brazil), but its on my to-do list. Because SA growing season is different months that US growing season, will need to find different months (not June through July) high quality climate data for SA.
Can't answer the question about moisture (rainfall) for SA (Brazil). For the US corn belt, growing season rainfall and temperature have been inversely correlated for the last 100 + years (they are not independent predictors). That means that rainfall is not needed in the model for US corn belt, but may be needed for SA model. Will need to find 100 years of climate data for SA growing season and correlate climate temperature against rainfall to determine degree of correlation that must be used in SA model.
June through July climate temperatures below long term average in the US corn belt are most likely the reason for above trend line US corn yield and production in the last 2 years. |
questions for the guy's that have worked on the climate prediction models
