Most baseline projections assume average weather.. so they undershoot a little on things.. but don't know when the big 83..88...12 drop is coming...??

Looks like USDA reads NAT!!  ( http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=602216&Dis... )

Pegged the Corn acreage 90.5

I agree with the drop in sorghum acres.. North of the Sugarcane Aphid line.. they like it.. south of it.. "not so much.."  We didn't have a lot of horror stories.. just one.. guy along the state line pulled in and went 200 yards.. plugged combine.. went home.. He wasn't gonna spend the $$$ for application when his neighbors did.. so.. that's what happens..  it's just the expense involved if you have to start spraying for such a low value/risky crop.. $30..$40 apps x multiple times.. = looking for other options..  but again that was mostly south of us last year..  Some people just won't do that.  Where does that line go this year.. north?  or south?  Hotter/dryer would say north... vs our ability to fight it..??  Only takes $$$

I was probably low on the beaners.. more like the 82 they have.. (see sorghum above..)

I agree that the next decade is gonna be dominated more by livestock than ethanol..  Do we finally find a bottom this year in Crude.. or is it lower longer..??  Does something blow up in the Middle East..???

then there's weather.. on one side we got 1988/2012 It's gonna fry.. to the other end.. almost 2014'ish so...  that SHOULD just about cover it...

I posted in the link above that we were wet.. Not after yesterdays record heat and 40..50.. mph winds.. (here..) but from us east.. probably still have chance of delayed plantings..  For us those who have harbored their soil moisture..   in some sort of wheat.. sorghum.. fallow.. program.. are probably gonna see rewards.  It's not worth much so when you plant it.. better have the moisture to make something vs just dust in and hope.  which is why I believe we are seeing acreage declines out here in the fringe..

Weather wise.. I believe we're gonna be a little rougher than last year.. little hotter.. It's not currently acting like an El Nino.. Hot and dry.. but we may get a few more waves before it dies..  IF it dies fast then.. ???  doomsday could be on.. more likely it will just fade away and we'll be saying..

"not a bad crop.. but one more rain or two would have really cranked it.."

best I got for now.. later.

90.5 ON the $$$!!  read it here first.. 

edit add: Not really on board with the declining gasoline demand.. electric cars?!?  maybe someday.. probably better than cellulosic ethanol.. but not much.  We're running out of places to plant wind farms.. physically we could.. but starting to run into land owner opposition.. "not on my farm"  they are trying to put one in to my south.. sounds like lawyers are getting involved over that one.. so.. peak wind farm??  Solar in Cali..??  maybe..  but do I see 5 myn electric cars a year being sold?  Not in the next 50 years..

This year will probably still be dominated by too strong US dollar.. burdensome Chinese stocks.. and struggling crude prices.

I'm not onboard with the cheap decade of crude in the 1980's.. when KSA idled 70% of their production (just don't see that today..) but it could be bumpy here for awhile.. probably run up to $40.. $50 this summer.. back to 30's this fall.. something like that..??

Thus we HAVE done better than their forecast thus far.. fingers crossed that it continues.. and I believe it will.. ethanol haters have underperformed.. but they don't go away either...

Yes we have an opportunity to really push the livestock.. need some sort of CRP to graze program.. young rancher starter program... (maybe Bernie will add that??)

Just listened to a Bernie Sanders political commercial.. (don't see that in Kansas..) Wow..  Seriously.. "government NEEDS to DO MORE!"

So.. I guess the dollar REALLY could become toilet paper.. maybe exports don't suck afterall...???

Crazy world...