| Last couple of weeks we've been talking about slowing domestic ethanol demand but this week's Blender's input popped back above the average since 9/1/15 at 878 k bbls per day vs the average of 870.5.. ditto domestic gasoline supplied at 9,203 k bbls per day vs the average of 9,051. So for whatever reasons.. storms.. retail stations waiting on falling prices.. post holiday blahs.. etc.. it appears that we are getting back on track with the SUMMER DRIVING SEASON fast approaching (boy howdie.. 85 degrees here today!!) which will require the LOWERING of Vapor Pressure which will eliminate some of the non-ethanol alternatives.. Thus we can expect more demand in our future here soon.. ;-) Implied exports are coming along.. I do not have the December Actual number but RFA site has the 2015 calendar year at.. 850'ish myn gallons for the calendar year http://www.ethanolrfa.org/ We did get another build in the stocks but.. this is normal and frankly not as big a deal as some commentators are making it out to be.. Gasoline storage is 10 x's this amount and there is still ample room with expected demand to come.. Stocks will peak out here soon as we head into summer. The grind continues to run about 2.4% above year ago.. 2.1% above on domestic blended with exports running about 8.7% above year ago levels. Tara will be happy that I upped the grind conversion to 2.8 bu per gallon per the RFA data released this week.. pretty good. Puts the projected grind of grain total (including sorghum) at 5.253 byn bushels. | | | | | | | | | | Computed | | | | | | | | | | | | Weekly Production | | | | | | | number to balance | Computed | Actual | Total | Weekly bu | | Weekly US | | Week | | Blenders Input | Imports | Stocks | Capacity | Residual and exports | Exports | Exports | Ethanol | Grind | Monthly | Year | Supplied Finished | | | Ethanol k bbls/day | k bbls /day | k bbls /day | k bbls | k bbls | | k bbls /day | k bbls | Monthly | EIA | demand | | | myn bu | Motor Gasoline | | | | | | | | | | 37,936 | | | | | | | | 2.8 | conversion | | Ethanol as % of | 9/4/2015 | 958 | | 896 | | 0 | | 18,642 | 49% | | 113.4 | | 794 | | | 1009.4 | 100,590 | | | 9017 | 9.94% | | 9/11/2015 | 961 | | 878 | | 0 | | 18,291 | 48% | | 133.1 | | 932 | | | 1011.1 | 100,905 | | | 8983 | 9.77% | | 9/18/2015 | 938 | | 892 | | 44 | | 18,900 | 50% | | 3.0 | | 21 | | | 895.0 | 98,490 | | | 9215 | 9.68% | | 9/25/2015 | 943 | | 881 | | 0 | | 18,782 | 50% | | 78.9 | | 552 | 2,299 | 1,438 | 959.9 | 99,015 | | | 9021 | 9.77% | | 10/2/2015 | 950 | | 882 | | 17 | | 18,812 | 50% | | 80.7 | | 565 | | | 962.7 | 99,750 | | | 8958 | 9.85% | | 10/9/2015 | 949 | | 887 | | 0 | | 18,956 | 50% | | 41.4 | | 290 | | | 928.4 | 99,645 | | | 9137 | 9.71% | | 10/16/2015 | 951 | | 897 | | 0 | | 18,872 | 50% | | 66.0 | | 462 | | | 963.0 | 99,855 | | | 9157 | 9.80% | | 10/23/2015 | 944 | | 915 | | 0 | | 18,273 | 48% | | 114.6 | | 802 | | | 1029.6 | 99,120 | | | 9343 | 9.79% | | 10/30/2015 | 969 | | 884 | | 10 | | 18,774 | 49% | | 23.4 | | 164 | 2,283 | 1,796 | 907.4 | 101,745 | | | 9184 | 9.63% | | 11/6/2015 | 982 | | 868 | | 26 | | 18,854 | 50% | | 128.6 | | 900 | | | 996.6 | 103,110 | | | 9388 | 9.25% | | 11/13/2015 | 975 | | 870 | | 0 | | 19,249 | 51% | | 48.6 | | 340 | | | 918.6 | 102,375 | | | 9054 | 9.61% | | 11/20/2015 | 1008 | | 885 | | 0 | | 19,627 | 52% | | 69.0 | | 483 | | | 954.0 | 105,840 | | | 8921 | 9.92% | | 11/27/2015 | 956 | | 876 | | 36 | | 19,997 | 53% | | 63.1 | | 442 | 2,165 | 1,450 | 939.1 | 100,380 | | | 9281 | 9.44% | | 12/4/2015 | 993 | | 839 | | 0 | | 19,829 | 52% | | 178.0 | | 1246 | | | 1017.0 | 104,265 | | | 9420 | 8.91% | | 12/11/2015 | 1000 | | 890 | | 32 | | 20,322 | 54% | | 71.6 | | 501 | | | 961.6 | 105,000 | | | 9220 | 9.65% | | 12/18/2015 | 973 | | 880 | | 0 | | 20,387 | 54% | | 83.7 | | 586 | | | 963.7 | 102,165 | | | 9185 | 9.58% | | 12/25/2015 | 992 | | 907 | | 0 | | 20,166 | 53% | | 116.6 | | 816 | 3,149 | 1,705 | 1023.6 | 104,160 | | | 9395 | 9.65% | | 1/1/2016 | 996 | | 787 | | 0 | | 21,099 | 56% | | 75.7 | | 530 | | | 862.7 | 104,580 | | | 8159 | 9.65% | | 1/8/2016 | 1003 | | 807 | | 0 | | 21,345 | 56% | | 160.9 | | 1126 | | | 967.9 | 105,315 | | | 8500 | 9.49% | | 1/15/2016 | 983 | | 856 | | 0 | | 21,940 | 58% | | 42.0 | | 294 | | | 898.0 | 103,215 | | | 9079 | 9.43% | | 1/22/2016 | 961 | | 865 | | 0 | | 21,436 | 57% | | 168.0 | | 1176 | | | 1033.0 | 100,905 | | | 8941 | 9.67% | | 1/29/2016 | 959 | | 815 | | 0 | | 22,362 | 59% | | 11.7 | | 82 | 3,208 | | 826.7 | 100,695 | | | 8341 | 9.77% | | 2/5/2016 | 969 | | 858 | | 0 | | 22,956 | 61% | | 26.1 | | 183 | | | 884.1 | 101,745 | | | 9122 | 9.41% | | 2/12/2016 | 975 | | 878 | | 0 | | 23,218 | 61% | | 59.6 | | 417 | | | 937.6 | 102,375 | | | 9203 | 9.54% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 792 | pace | | | | | | | | 15 to date | 970.3 | | 870.5 | | 6.9 | | 20045 | | | 82 | | 571 | 2316 | ?? | 952 | 101,885 | 2,445 | myn bu | 9051 | | | 14 to date | 947.3 | | 852.8 | | 0.9 | | 18634 | | | 75 | | 526 | 2196 | 1785 | 928 | 99,466 | 2,387 | myn bu | 8923 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2419.4 | 58 | myn bu | | | | 15 vs 14 | 2.4% | | 2.1% | | | | 7.6% | | | 8.7% | | 8.7% | 5.5% | ?? | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | | 1.4% | | | | | | 51496.0 | | | | Calendar Yr: | | 544.0 | | 3808.0 | | 19859.0 | | | | | | | | | | | 15139.8 | | | | | | | gallons: | | 159.936 | 32,844 | 23,649 | 72.0% | 2.80 | conversion | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 834.078 | | | | | | | | 2015 avg | 962.1 | | 872.8 | | | | | | | | | | | 992.6 | pace | 101,017 | avg 2015 grind | | | | | 14.75 | | 13.38 | | | | | | | | | | | 0.993 | | 5,252,890 | | | | | | Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M Cheers. |