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Corn Beans AND Wheat - Energy Level Update
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jpartner
Posted 8/4/2015 09:48 (#4715609 - in reply to #4715562)
Subject: RE: Wheat


kst1 - 8/4/2015 08:09 Just trying to get a grip on your analysis, when you refer to "confirm"ing highs or lows, is that meeting them twice? IE break through to a new high, then sag and rebound to the new high again? And that confirms a rally? The opposite also being true?

Hi kst1,

To confirm a level, price needs to make new highs or lows.  In the intraday charts, I require closes into those new levels, other wise they can be just washes.  So, in the downtrend in wheat that has been going on since the last major rally in 2012, the spring 2014 highs bagged the minor level, then made new lows.  It became a structural level.  We then rallied in the fall of 2015 - did not take out the 2014 highs and price then went on to "eak" out new lows.  Technically, this is a structural level now, but with those weak closes, we will note that there was very little follow through.  The latest rally again rallied back up , did not take out the earlier 2015 highs, and too date, has not made new lows.  To confirm the latest rally as a structural level, then price needs to make new lows.  By doing that, it would remove the doubt on the earlier 2015 rally.  The reason we consider a level structural is because it will likely have backing of the major players of the market.  If you are "the man" in the pit, and the last time you stepped in and made a sale and price made new lows, you know that for the downtrend to continue, you will likely have to lower your offers....and more importantly, everybody else in the pit that didn't get on the last move because they were thinking of a higher price, knows that they will need to "step down" too.  If a level does not make new lows, most times it will not be backed by the whale.  People see the pivot and think they can put their stops there.  Breakout buyers see the market fail to put in new lows, and want to get theirs. So they put their orders above that level too.  The whales know this, and they deliberately push the market up there, stopping out everybody that is long.  The BO buyers get long, and then the whales push it lower, and the BO get "theirs" handed to them. This is exactly what happened in the corn market.  The rally was the bagging of a non structural level - in a downtrend.  Sellers stepped in short, and now the job of this swing is to make new lows - by doing that it would confirm this years highs as a structural level.  Failure to do that will then leave the recent highs vulnerable and so on.  The trend remains unchanged until the the like sized sellers or buyers are not willing to buy/sell the same price they did before. 

I bet you have used a ratchet strap at some point.   Every click of the handle stores energy in the strap.  For every new cog to be taken, the lever has to go past the teeth on the gear for the lock to engage.   This continues til the lever can not be moved far enough to engage the next tooth in the gear. When this point is reached, all the energy stored in that strap is going to be released.  Wheat has been having trouble engaging that next tooth. 

Hope that helps.

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