Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | I was curious about whether an early planting year might portend a dry summer and a poor yield so I did the following little analysis (see table). I fabricated a "crop progress index" using the sum of USDA's crop progress data for the last several weeks plus "100's" if the progress report indicated planting completed for the year ( see the table). By adding 100 (as in 100%) for those early planting years it gives those years higher scores for being early. Then I calculated the yield trendline and the yield residual above or below the expected trend line yield for the particular year. Positive residuals indicate better than expected yield, negative residuals poorer than expected yields. Plotting the crop progress index vs the yield residual give the results shown.
You might expect an early planting year to give higher yields or if early planting is accompanied by later drought lower yields. There doesn't seem to be an obvious advantage or disadvantage to early planting. You can imagine that there is a very slight advantage to getting the crop planted early enough but not too early as shown by the curved line.
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 crop progress vs yld-page-001.jpg (151KB - 78 downloads)
progress index-page-001.jpg (68KB - 83 downloads)
corn yld-page-001.jpg (44KB - 74 downloads)
prog index vs yld-page-001.jpg (38KB - 81 downloads)
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Weekly Crop Progress
