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| Because the corn carryout for Sept. 1 bothered me & understand we fed more feed wheat, I decided to research the past 15 years of ethanol production. Took a little digging and I believe corn usage for the June-August quarter was 'over projected' by USDA. I think we used about 20 mil. less bushels. Further, my data suggests USDA may have overestimated the corn usage for ethanol production for this new crop year.
I believe the crop report has been largely discounted by the marketplace; however, in my opinion, I think the suppy/demand projections may reflect a higher carryout for the end of this crop year, than expected. While I am going to enter this report long july corn (just a dab) and short sept wheat (also a dab), I am going to speculate I will be able to buy july corn 10-15 cents lower next week..Just my personal outlook. I have never made any money trying to outguess USDA, but in my mind, the risk of corn ownership, in the short run, has increased. In contrast, technically, we are in a historic wheat market with a lot of issues yet to be addressed in acreage in all crops, and and weather & best to let the market 'tell us' the direction. My short wheat is 'just a trade' and in no circumstances do I want to be short this old crop wheat market as it yet could be explosive.
Edited by SeniorCitizen 10/11/2007 06:27
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Research on Ethanol-corn slightly higher risk-my opinion
