So a couple of weeks ago we were down at Commodity Classic... Listening to all the bearish outlooks. 

"We've just witnessed the END of the 2nd Great Farming boom since the days of Parity.."
"IF producers get ONE MORE CHANCE to sell.. they BETTER JUMP all over it.."
"2+ billion corn carryouts as far as the eye can see.."
"No Gov't policy to arrest this thing if it gets out of control.. no Set Asides.. CRP acres reduced.."
yada yada yada.. you get the idea..

I describe at the time as a "slit your wrists marketing outlooks.."

Then we come home and USDA says..the US producer is primed to plant 93 myn acres..

Meanwhile I'm just coming through a multi year drought..  In 2009 I had a DRYLAND field of corn make.. like 183.

Our Average precipitation is on the order of 28.5" give or take.. and my average Dryland Corn APH is 65'ish to 85'ish a couple over 100.. whole farm average of 67 since 1992.

Here's what we got:  

2009 28.89"  Dryland Corn yields: 100 bu average best 183.
2010 21.79.. 96
2011 11.33.. Uno. (1) "cough cough.."
2012 16.89.. 15
2013 34.71.. 65
2014 26.31.. 146 rains came timely
2015 22.66..  50.. Rained out west.. hopped over us.. Rained to our east..

Most attribute the Dry stretch started in the Fall of 2010.. thus over the past 6 years we received on average 22.28" which is skewed by the deluges in 2013's 15" over 6 weeks in LH July August.. you take 13 out.. and we averaged 19.8" about 70% of normal.. and it seems rougher than that.

Anywho.. Kansas was flush with Grain in 09.. by the Fall of 2010 the local coop called up about 75% through Corn Harvest and said..  "We're gonna stop dumping corn on the ground today.. Accountant won't let us take anymore risks.."

Even though I had contracted grain.. fortunately.. I had JUST ENOUGH room at home to hold it.. but.. "golly never seen that before.."  It was legit.. I think with the screwed up markets at the time.. and merchants were burning through $$$ on Margin calls and buying grain..  I believe our Coops Op Line of Credit went from like $25 to $30 myn.. to $50 myn to ???  maybe $75 to $100 myn or something astronomical.. so.. someone was probably sweating blood over events never seen before.. either.. just like the rest of us.

Then we fell off the production cliff..  The Drought of 2011 was LEGIT.. as I said dryland Averaged 1 bu.. whole fields of nothing standing taller than my knee..  Most of that 1 bu came out of a couple football fields buried deep in a field.. low spot.. pushed the monitor over 20 bu.. up to maybe 30 bu for a couple of telephone poles.. long.. the WHOLE dryland farm came from that little.. 5.. 6.. 7.. acres.. and by golly since I had it contracted.. I went out there and got it.  Whole pivots made 65 bu down from 220 the year before..  we averaged 136 irrigated after running the wheels off that summer... down from 208 in 09.

2012 was worse for the rest of the cornbelt but better for us..

by the fall of 2013..  the year of Maize's Basis Cliff.. we started hauling 65 bu dryland corn out west for almost a $2.00 plus basis.. we're about as far west as they raise dryland corn.. (maybe another 30.. 50 miles.. depends..)  Anywho.. hauling that out there I remember going by about 13 elevators that would NORMALLY have SOMETHING.. and they Must have been completely empty.. or they were NOT shipping ANYTHING.. truely ran the state out of corn.. Feedlots were shipping corn IN from Waco Texas by then..

"wow."

2014 the country had a big crop.. started seeing lines again at the elevators.. as surpluses sought storage..

2015.. ditto.. by now the elevators.. ours has probably built storage every year since the boom started.. and we've filled it and back to dumping corn on the ground some of which will NOT be picked up before wheat harvest.. I can think of.. 1..2..3..4...5...6..etc.. just off the top of my head.

To Today.. We had 5.74" of rainfall in April.. and it's still raining.. only got 0.10" Thursday but wasn't forecast to get anything.. and the 7 day.. 



which finally sets the stage for what I want to talk about..

The funds appear to be calling the Fed's bluff.. "so you want to see INFLATION before you start raising rates eh?"  and they've piled into all things commodities.. not that I mind.. better than all the talk this winter of Reliving the busts of the 1980's.. Loan Rates on the way... etc.. ad nauseam.

Yes we got a build in the Cattle numbers.. but price wise.. we're on the verge of seeing Wheaties work their way into the feed ration.. just about.. "cheaper than corn."

The next Coop or two over.. is loading Unit Trains of Corn.. out of Kansas.. for Export..  To Mexico.  In their words.. "never thunk we'd use it for that.."

The rest of the merchandisers are dreaming of buying insanely cheap Wheat basis.. "and visions of cheap basis danced in their heads.."

"I think the country can hold a 35 bu crop.. maybe a 40 bu crop.. but what if it's 50.. or 60 bushel crop.."

shhhhhhh.... neighbor out west thinks he's gonna bring in 70 bu dryland wheat.. vs last year's 35... I've seen it.. and.. he might still be low.. better than our irrigated.. which might do.. 75 to 80 to 90..?? depending upon the dieses pressure.. hail.. pestulence.. etc left to come..??  "always something..."

Golly is this the year that Kansas is an oasis.. and the rest of the Cornbelt either drowns or fry's.. btw.. which is it?  Have we decided yet?

Or.. do the rains continue and we can't get the wheaties out?

All I'm saying.. is at least it's not boring...  On the verge of one of the best crops ever.. and prices are going up..

So.. is this still the 1980's.. did I sit through all those "slit your wrist" marketing outlooks for nothing???

Can we have good crops AND good prices???

Which is gonna go away first...???

14.4 byn bushels US Corn Crops.. 2.5 byn bushel Carryovers.. OR  $6.50 corn...???


????