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NW Indiana | I'm trying to come up with a reason to be a bull the next 90 days and just can't come up with a reason that outweighs the bears. I feel it is fair to say that old crop seems fairly priced considering we have farmers selling and end users buying. So from there I have to look out the outlook of new crop. The trade is going to assume we have ample acres in corn and beans. Maybe even a question of if it becomes to many with the lower wheat plantings. I think it is safe to say the trade will assume a corn yield of around 167 and bean yield of 46.5. Plug those numbers into your S&D and what did you come up with? South America appears to have a reasonable crop all but made so supplies will come to the world market shortly. I know I am going to get the argument about potential planting delays. Well you might want to look back at the last 7 or so years of history before you throw that argument at me. The trade no longer gets concerned about potential delays, it will take actual reality of a significant lost acres before there would be much excitement. Today's machinery is to large for the market to care May 12. Look at the drought monitor, does that concern you? Basis will work out supply issues in different areas, that is not the boards job. The potential of la nina, ok do you want to buy 100 contracts hoping that is plays out this summer or would you wait until we get closer to see the likelihood of it? The Feb insurance avg is nearing an end. Everyone wants to think the market will build weather premium leading into the growing season, how has that worked out for you the last several years? My ears are open but in the next 90 days I'm struggling to be a bull. | |
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What makes you bullish grains the next 90 days?
