northern edge of north central Missouri | I know when something smells fishy. Several posts back zenfarm posted a chart seemingly to show that price responds equally up and down to usda production reports. And yes the report was from nass. Problem is, it evaluates price action day AFTER a report.
I looked at price action on report days 30 minutes before report release, and also 30 minutes after, so 10:30 and 11:30 central time. I looked at nov. soybeans because thats what butters my bread. I looked at most recent 4 years and chose the july, august,and September production report days because these are the reports that cannot be based on anything tangible (imo) and most affect marketing for me personally. I just wanted to know if it was as I thought, or just seemed that way. This is what I found:
Here are the changes from 10:30 to 11:30
July 11 2014 -16
Aug 8 2014. -2 3/4
Sept 11 2014. -12 1/4
July 10 2015 +5 3/4
Aug 12 2015 -51
Sept 11 2015 +1 1/2
July 12 2016. +1
Aug 12 2016 -3 1/2
Sept 12 2016. -27
July 12 2017. -6
Aug 10 2017. -38 3/4
Sept 12 2017. -14 1/4
Cumulative + 8 1/4
Cumulative - 171 1/2
Volume spikes were very apparent around releases
Lot of people trade government reports.
I will continue to take all this into consideration when marketing/trading.
Sb response post report suggests usda is losing some credibility. That is a good thing and confirms for me these reports have no value.
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I may not be smart but
