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China buys again
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Illinois Steve
Posted 5/18/2021 09:10 (#9011419 - in reply to #9011378)
Subject: RE: China buys again


North Central Illinois
You really need to get a grip on your emotions. The USDA is not doing anything they don't normally do. The USDA has never allowed for drought conditions and lack of subsoil moisture before a crop is out of the ground or still emerging. In their eyes the crop has full potential at this point and they will adjust accordingly as the summer progresses. We don't have to like their methodology but it is the system we have to work with and no amount of theatrics or sarcasm by you are anyone else is going to change the way they do things. You and other people seem to think they should start by projecting a poor crop and only adjust higher once the crop is in the bin. It doesn't work that way. Do I think this crop has some issues to overcome? Yes, I think there are potential issues for sure but none that can't be overcome with the right weather. Statistically we usually get the right weather or close enough to it to get a good or big crop. It's always bigger than the NAT Crop killers project all spring and summer. In the spirit of full disclosure we are quite dry here and I have concerns about it a month or so down the road. We will be fine for the next month but if the pattern doesn't change we do not have subsoil moisture to carry us through July and August like a lot of years. I believe most of northern Illinois is similar but central and southern parts of the state are pretty well saturated. I am well aware of conditions west of the Mississippi as well. The USDA is obviously banking on a change in the weather pattern out there. History says the odds of that happening are pretty good but there are always years like 1983, 1988, 1995, 2005, and 2012 that will upset that apple cart. Is this one of those years? It could well be.
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