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Clay SEIA
Posted 5/16/2021 00:20 (#9007399 - in reply to #9007229)
Subject: RE: Show me.....



Kooiker - 5/15/2021 21:53

AGDEAL - 5/15/2021 20:21 If that area has a perfect year it'll be north of 180.


If we had "perfect" weather on every acre of corn in this country the national average would be well over 200 bpa.  Possibly north of 250.


Keep in mind perfect weather for every acre does not look the same.     We have acres that had their best year ever in 2019 when it rained every 3rd day, we also had acres that had their poorest crop in over 20 years because they were too dang wet.    

It takes a lot of little problems on a lot of acres to get the national yield down to 170-180.



And, a widespread weather pattern that is very wet kills the river bottoms and the prairie pothole country, but it's great for the hills in Mizzery and the pivot corners in Nebraska and Kansas.  One that is very warm means MN and ND are above average and get their crops off before Christmas, but it fries the guys with thin dirt down south of Interstate 70.  It may happen someday, but the corn belt is so much broader than it was in 1994 that the odds of a growing season that far above trendline on 20-30% more acres are definitely diminished a great deal.   

I'm not killing the crop.  I still maintain that the current dry spell is happening mostly in a region that loses more bushels to flooded spots, replant, prevented plant, lost fertilizer, etc. than it it typically does to drought.   

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