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| Is really narrow as we all know. I am not an expert by any stretch but I feel like it might be a good indicator as to where cattle will go. I found this article interesting. If we get to a “normal” spread between the two that puts cattle at pretty lofty levels (barring that hogs stay around where they are). It can also go to “normal” if hogs were to crap the bed and cattle would stay constant. I think the first scenario is more likely. Here is an article that I found interesting regarding the spread.
https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1726&context=...
I think the first scenario of cattle increasing in price relative to hogs is more likely due to feed. We aren’t going to be feeding a bunch of hippos when corn is 6.5+++ on the cash market. This might not pertain to guys with their own feed pile but overall I think it will keep cattle moving and at lower weights. I hate to say it but it is what we need in the long run.The pack can’t play this hand forever and this will come back to bite them in the a$$ when we eventually run short on cattle. Morale is super low amongst cattlemen. This will probably be reflected in any replies I get to this post as well! It’s pretty easy to see that when you go on social media or talk to cattlemen. I know quite a few guys that are either cutting back on their cattle numbers or getting out altogether. I’m not saying I’m going to be right but I think we will have something pretty good going for us down the road. We’ve been getting kicked around long enough and the cattle guy will have his moment. It seems like every commodity out there has taken off with the exception of cattle and cattle are at relatively cheap prices compared to where they should be. ESPECIALLY in relation to boxes. There’s always light at the end of the tunnel despite what some say!
Edited by bohunk 4/29/2021 10:55
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Misc ramblings and the Cattle-hog spread
