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Fontanelle, IA | Maybe so.
I’m guessing everyone already has prices of 2022 n+p+k (or applied multi years worth to serve as a bank account), pig/cattle/poultry manure guarantee, 2022 seed, locked in 2022 land rent rates, fuel, chem, overhead for 2022 crop in hand or sitting on a years of input needs for a crop 1 year in future when only 8% of the 2021 corn and maybe 3-5% of 2021 beans planted (or whatever planting progress showed today).
OP asked about red Dec/nov sales- I just provided a strategy to stay disciplined so that fear/greed don’t get out of hand. We are passed the near term bottom of cheap inputs and on the rising slope now... where inputs top out and where grain prices top out are 2 separate timings... could be a long tail on 1 and a free fall on the other. I don’t know which/when/how.
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