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Rolling HTA’s at elevator for dec 21 contract?
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coup
Posted 2/21/2021 18:06 (#8849422 - in reply to #8848584)
Subject: RE: Rolling HTA’s at elevator for dec 21 contract?


USA
CSE - 2/21/2021 11:03

What is so out of line and bogus? Trucks don't run for free (no information of trucking distance given or load out facilitiesgiven) , neither is electricity, the dust in the air is weight. Maybe interest, now that I see he said note is paid down. I realize there is cheaper money out there, picked middle of the road number. Stick grain in a bin if you want to work more, but it should make financial sense. A person can make nothing but assumptions with the limited information given.

I am a fan of Dec hta then rolling but doing it out of what ifs at 11c doesn't cover expense. If he is worried about an inverse, the downside is protected with the hta already. Basis should be good in the fall with a shorter crop. I realize you use your own set of numbers and try to apply them to everyone with a broad brush and like to give your opinion as fact and argue.

So in that respect, come with your numbers. This way maybe I could learn a little.


My numbers are closer to reality than yours.

You pay shrink cost no matter if put in bin or haul out of field to somebody else.. Buyer has to either in increase charge or lower price paid for grain to cover shrink loss. So shrink charge is mute point.

Can handle grain for 2-3 cent a bu. Your money cost is about 5 cents too high. What else needs to be plugged into the equation is basis opportunity gain for corn in on farm storage Vs grain in somebody's else's storage. Captive stored grain sells for less majority of the time.

11 cent carry - 5 cent money cost + 5 cent handling savings + 20 cent storage savings + 10 cent drying charge savings + 5 cent basis push = $.46 bu advantage on farm storage .
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