Posted 2/21/2021 11:13 (#8848487 - in reply to #8847994) Subject: RE: Rolling HTA’s at elevator for dec 21 contract?
Normally I'd agree. On the flipside, there is nothing right now that tells me we're going to have a carryout like the last few years. Not sure I'd be banking on full carry at any point this year. Sure it could happen, just as likely we see an inverse for the majority or the growing season. To the OP, depending on how heavily you're hedged, I'd be tempted to take the 11 cents on a few bushels. If you're heavily hedged and end up with a short crop, you're that much closer to rolling back to Dec 22, plus you have an extra 11 cents to help cover the loss from that roll. Not saying you should plan on having a short crop, but doing that would reduce some exposure in the event you do. If you end up delivering on it, maybe you could've gotten more for the roll by then, maybe not.