Posted 2/21/2021 07:28 (#8847976 - in reply to #8847935) Subject: RE: Rolling HTA’s at elevator for dec 21 contract?
Sheep Farmer - 2/21/2021 06:01
Their is a .11 carry from dec 21 to May 22. Does a guy roll those hta’s right now and pick up the carry? Reason I’m thinking this is because had same scenario for dec 2020 and didn’t pick up that much carry to the March 20 from last fall now their is an inverse which makes rolling anymore economically dumb. If we roll dec 21 to may 22 we pick up the .11 and if we do have short crop and inverse is in effect again (just like March and May 21) we could pick up some carry rolling backwards. I know it’s only a penny difference now but was wider in the last couple months. What are my risks by rolling now instead of waiting until fall? One I can think of is if we have a big crop that spread will widen out and I would be able to roll for more this fall, might get .11 just to March but my scenario from the 2020 crop is stuck in my head right now. Tia
At this stage of the game you don't bet against history unless it is in your favor. What mean by that is plus 11 to roll is not in your favor. Plus 30 would be.