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Anyone watchine the morning open?
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indeeppigfarmer
Posted 2/11/2021 12:40 (#8824453 - in reply to #8824250)
Subject: RE: Anyone watchine the morning open?


Joe R - 2/11/2021 10:59

So you are forecasting an early spring to allow for these early premiums? That is a major unkown that can not be considered at this time. You are obviously bearish and have a narrative to fit that thought.

The exact opposite could be equally/more true. A less than perfect growing season in the face of higher demand and shorter supply and these prices are cheap for the new crop.

Both are speculation at the moment and one should be prepared for either option....or the option they feel has the greatest chance of happening.


There were beans that had matured physiologically, but hadn't dropped enough leaves yet to harvest that were sprayed to facilitate that happening. Doesn't take an early spring for that to happen. Some will try to push the limits of nature for the very short window that be closing just as harvest is within sight. This could very well happen again this year. Doesn't have anything to do with being bullish or bearish, just trying to take advantage of the changing of the season.

It doesn't take a perfect growing season. Harvest will happen, and the available supply will become available. Price will fluctuate all season, as the market will assess if the crop has potential to be enough or not. Higher new crop prices will decrease total demand, as alternatives are considered, usage curtailed, or operations cease their activity.

Whether the crop is big enough or not, the front half of the marketing year will not be where rationing occurs, it will be on the back half.

Mother nature is/ can be fickle and throw wrenches into the best laid plans, but I will never bet against the American farmer...especially with the technology available today.
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