Time will tell.


FAO and USDA disagree on China internal stocks.   They differ by a mere 2B bushels of corn.  I’m not familiar with methodology similarities or differences.

Many market analysts feel USDA’s corn export number is low. I think it is conservative and they are waiting to see if the many booked sales verify before recognizing them as exported.  China holds a lot of cards there.  Iron Curtain of Misinformation or a classic asymmetric information market.  USDA raised China corn imports significantly but the domestic S/D implies they aren’t getting them here.  Ukraine has on export limits and Brazil is behind average pace planting that second crop.

Basis here is 10-12 cents tighter than normal and has been for 5+ weeks. 

The few folks I have spoken with sold more harvest bushels across the scale than usual.  Elevators were empty for the first time in many years going into harvest.  One might expect that with strong basis and inverted carry those bushels were priced and are shipping as fast as possible.

I parted with 25% or so of stored bushels @ $5.00 a couple weeks ago.  I assume some others did as well.  The rest, well, right now I’d like a great-tasting $6.00 cookie with sprinkles on top and I can hold out for a long time to get it.  May not, but I and many others are in the strongest cash position in 5+ years.

It’s not ludicrous to think that the market will have to work to get the last 10% or more of bushels off the farm.