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what if carbon does not collect as thought/intended?
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MidNight Mapper
Posted 2/11/2021 19:33 (#8825357 - in reply to #8814305)
Subject: RE: Mapper


Colorado and Oz

Sorry to be a bit tardy on response.

There are a number of issues for soil carbon credits in two areas - additivity and persistence.  The additivity is the trigger for tracking the marginal soil carbon increase related to the additivity test.  Persistence is the issue around rescue tillage or change of tenant or ?? that would compromise the 10-year promise to preserve the carbon credit one the supplier, the farm, sells their certified carbon credit to the buyer.  In NORI case the promise is the one tonne or what ever is bought has a ten year guarantee of its persistence. 

On your in-situ trials.  My comments are based in the assumption you can control via smart planter and VRT planning the treatment.

I used to recommend 2.5 acre (one hectare) grids to the accumulate surface.  I now believe the smart carbon farmer, aka soil health methods, should consider use of square chains. A square chain is 66ft x 66ft or 20m x 20m.  There are ten square chains to an acre and 25 to a hectare.  I would suggest you lay your trial out at two chains wide (132ft) by five long (330 ff).  For most of the performance data at one hertz record this will provide plenty of degrees of freedom within the swath for meaningful mean and deviation at a one acre treatment scale?  Two and three bit management zones are helpful but given most of the VRT resolution of accurate delivery is at eight or more bits. 

On the shadow price we all want to see operating.  I believe Made in America Soil Carbon Credits will always offer a premium price for "spot market" make-ups for NET-zero corporate policy.  The corporate response to pressure by investors to understand the exposure of their shares to environmental disclosure and events that imbalance their goals will need to buy these differences.  They might trade as I believe they do in a birds-of-a-feather in a cap-and-trade design?  And on occasion have to reach out to soil carbon credits at the spot or in likely future delivery.  The carbon futures stuff will come.

International market day price of mtCO2 is up $8/mtCO2e since the USA recommitted to the Paris goals.  It is now $27.

As for grades of carbon credits?  Absolutely.  There are two great groups of carbon credits: those derived from "avoidance" projects that replace large foot print tech with smaller or low emissions (like coal to gas or regerneative); and sequestrated carbon extracted from the atmosphere (like soil carbon, trees, kelp and others).  Made in USA Soil Carbon Credits will IMHO become the source of liquidity as well as speculative opportunity where farmers again hold important cards at the policy level.  

Diamonds versus butter?  I would respond this way.  IMHO the Chinese must buy Made in USA Soil Carbon Credits to insure the productivity of the fields where they get their soy and feed stocks for their three billion plus.  Another angle, what about a farmer who documents their soil carbon baseline and its certifications on 1,000 acres for ten years.  The SOC increased by one metric tonne per acre per year average over the ten years.  The certified and documented soil carbon conservation inventory then would be 10,000 mtSOC.  One SOC converts to 3.67.  The "additional" carbon inventory in mtCO2 equivalency would then be 36,700 mtCO2e in the on-farm inventory.  Today the mtCO2e for soil carbon is $15 to $20/mtCO2e.  In ten years the speculation could be $100 or more. Agriculture now has a way to value soil productivity/health thought the SOC proxy and the wider carbon credit market.  At $100/mtCO2e WAG for 2030,  the farm inventory of certified SOC increase is valued at $$3.6 million if liquidated to a ten year permanence easement?  

My suggestion would be to buy damaged ground with poor soil health, nurse it back, and claim the carbon credits?

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