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SW Wisconsin | Can the really big co-ops be trusted to implement supply management fairly? I think I would trust my co-op to do it, but I'm not even really sure about that. The spring-fall system would be disastrous for me, depending on what dates they pick. Would other processors take that as an opportunity to pick up market share? I used to think that it would be better administered at the co-op level, but the problem is too much milk nationwide, and some of the biggest co-ops by production are out west with farm numbers in the single digits. I really think in order to have an effective system it has to be federally administered. It would be painfully simple to administer: you really just need a database with milk production history, a way to collect milk production information monthly, and a review process for farms changing ownership, merging, trying to cheat etc. A few thousand dollars worth of server space and one or two full time paper pushers could handle the whole system for the country. My system would also be a net revenue stream for the federal government, albeit a small one.
I basically agree with the idea of the expanding farmer taking on the marketing risk, but it's hard to see that playing out. If the farmer who expands can sell his milk more efficiently (say, by the tanker load) then the "free market" dictates it's the guy who didn't change who loses.
Ultimately I'd be happy to see the big farms lose out: I'm old school enough that I'd love to see a dairy on every quarter section. But the reason we need a fair system is that as much as there is any lobbying power to be divided among dairy farmers it all belongs to the big guys. Most of the lobbying power belongs to the processors, who claim to represent "the industry" which is why it's so hard to get meaningful reform even considered. Ultimately I believe that if we had a system that paid a consistent fair price the small dairies would make a comeback: there are people who want to farm and can't afford to now. Not every dairy will successfully make a generational transition, and big dairies will eventually die out because they're not a good way to make money, and they wouldn't be the only (perceived) way to make money in dairy. I don't want to take anything away from the guys who have built up empires, they've (mostly) played by the rules and earned what they got. I don't think that's the best model, so I'd like a system that gives smaller farms an equal shot. Small farms get a bad rap for being inefficient, but I really think we can compete if the playing field is level. Nobody works cheaper on my farm than I do (ok, right now my sister might be beating me there by a little). | |
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Dairy forecast
