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Central Missouri | The demand draw from China is playing out. What is going to be interesting is how or where the markets reflects it in the end. No doubt barge freight is getting tight as indicated by barge freight rates. We have been loading for export an average of 2mmt of soybeans per week since sept 1.
Soybean loading to China will be over by end of Jan. Of the 2mmt each week 1.45 mmt per week has gone to China. There are 13 weeks left in our soybean shipping season to China. If we load 1.4 mmt average per week to China for those 13 it adds another 18.2 mmt to the already shipped 10.1 mmt to China. Its going to be very interesting to watch this play out. One thing is for sure China has done a great job of buying their beans cheap.
First chart is current basis bids at gulf. If you look at the bid structure through Jan it reflects export demand in Jan similar to today.
The second chart is gulf basis 10 days ago.
3rd chart is 30 days ago.
The conclusion I draw is that basis reductions on the inland water system feeding the gulf are a reflection of barge freight tightness.
Edited by ehoff 10/31/2020 07:48
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Weekly reversals
