mn | mn_feeder - 10/29/2020 16:25
I think Biden wins; and it's probably not particularly close. Stocks rally pretty substantially on stimulus hopes. ($2.2 probably blows up to $3T+ if Blue House and Senate). If Trump concedes and agrees to peaceful transitions we'll really *really* rally.
If Trump wins but we see a Blue House and Red Senate, I think we get somewhat of a sell-off. More gamesmanship and status quo here I think would probably be unwelcomed by the market.
Trump wins but we see a blue house blue senate (which I think is least likely outcome) we probably rally substantially.
Theme here being, how fast and how much will the market price in a stimulus package.
You assume this is going to be an event less election. Nov. 4th will be a long way from the end. BOTH sides have stated they will not concede due to all the uncertainty of mail in ballots. All that unknown will cause severe volatility in the markets. Not sure who came up with this theory that Trump wouldn't leave peacefully, but him refusing to concede will cause a media uproar with volatile markets while biden refusing to concede with get full media approval and likely tame markets.
My guess is the process will end up with the house of representatives or Supreme Court deciding the election. If its Trump, there will be riots. If its Biden we will see major dumping of US assets and energy(including ethanol) stocks. Owning assets and/or energy under Biden will be a bad idea per his proposals
Edited by jtpfarm 10/29/2020 18:25
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Short Term NYSE
