Posted 10/16/2020 14:55 (#8548966 - in reply to #8548832) Subject: RE: Explain how this could be please
They work backwards. Figure out the demand and then how much carryover do they need to report to keep prices from doing anything dramatically. Assume the trend line yield and that gets you your planting intention. Once the reports to FSA start rolling in with actual planted acres they adjust yields to keep the carryover close to the original projections. Hope for a normal growing season, If they find that their carryover is off in late August/Sept they will adjust the feed usage. Rinse and repeat for the following year. Boys the goal isn't the truth its to keep the prices from reacting too much one way or the other. They will never ever fess up to being wrong. Its always feed usage, It's the one demand factor that isn't actually measured in some other report other than livestock inventory reports but Find me the University Professor that wants to prove that the USDA is full of BS and use's their own reports to prove it. Guess who would go hungry? once the USDA Cuts out the grants to his University.