Posted 10/15/2020 17:55 (#8547515) Subject: How to play the bean spreads/basis post Jan
What’s everyone’s feeling on how the soy spreads will play out? Soy processor just went from a +20H to +52H for Feb delivery. Flat price stair steps up the normal 2-3cents a month but with the inverse the +52 is required to get that bid. So far Mar delivery is not following suit. Normally in a positive basis area so the +20 isn’t odd but I don’t remember that type of move in the years past when inverses were common. Normally the inverse started to break down prior to the processor needing to get bushels on the books so that type of basis couldn’t be seen until mid-summer.
Will we see weakness in the F to bring them together or will the deferred get pulled up much to make a basis contract an option?