Posted 10/15/2020 09:27 (#8546938 - in reply to #8546337) Subject: RE: A blind man could trade these markets
West of Lincoln a little bit
Our basis improved a little but it didn't tell me the crop wasn't there, it told me that farmers didn't want to let it go at that price and they had to pay up a little more to get it.
I believed the USDA numbers and sold accordingly because that's what the trade listens to and I cannot hold old crop indefinitely. While I always assume they're wrong, the USDA is the one who's wrong numbers are always "right" as they're the only game in town. So we dealt with it. I never in a million years assumed they'd be wrong by that much. It's so much, in fact, the logic tells me they lied instead of erred. We sell on the same schedule pretty much every year; seasonals for consistency and typical averages. Remains to be seen if the USDA is going to blow up the seasonals now. I can sell the rest of this year's decently and there's next year's crop.
Farmers playing the "why didn't you" card must be perfect.
Are these new numbers lies or truth? Doesn't matter, we have to trade according to what they print.