Posted 10/13/2020 14:33 (#8544252 - in reply to #8544035) Subject: RE: Broad based commodity bias
I would see it somewhat differently,
Traded sideways from Aug 2019 to Feb 2020,
Traded down from Feb 2020 to mid August 2020
Traded up from mid August 2020 to present.
Has traded sideways for the last few weeks, BUT I don't see it being able to break out downward for two reasons.
1. we already had a scorched earth, blowout bottom. I don't think that it will happen again anytime soon.
2. Demand is recovering faster than production, reserves are dropping.
The two areas that are lagging in recovery are gasoline and airlines, which I don't see as causing concern, as vacations and travel are the result of a strong economy, not the drivers of economic growth.
I see corn as being partway through a run to ?
Oil as winding up for the next run, and having almost no downside risk.