Todays Commstock report:

That is not the worst of it though. I have had private sources connected commercially to Chinese buyers tell me that USDA has known for some time that Chinese demand would be significantly larger than stated. They had a chance to update their forecast in the September report and didn't. It is now becoming more transparent that China is in our market big time and will bring home much larger totals than USDA currently has fit into the balance sheet. Why? There are some who are very angry seeing it as blatant end-user bias that I have noted is helped by USDA process. If the USDA had told what they knew when they knew it, the market would have had this information for 2 months now. That let end-users including China steal a lot of low-price grain/soy. Some allege that this was so bad that it was "criminal". I paid little attention to the September crop report believing that until USDA harvests some of their plots they cannot accurately measure the impact of what happened to the end of the growing season. They should have this data for the October crop report. If they update the balance sheet for Chinese demand, that should shrink forecast carryovers significantly. We should get some transparency from them in the quarterly stocks report first.