This rally feels to me like 1996.

If I recall we had the droughts in 1988..  wheat in 89.. then prices pulled back.. actually pretty stagnant by mid 90's.. remember that Iraq invaded Kuwait in.. 90.. 91.. so there was that conflict spiking Crude Oil all the way from like $10 to the Incredibly HIGH price of $30..

Things started to settle down again post that.. and China came in by 1996.. kind of out of the blue..and cleaned us out..

What happened next?

The Start of a new era?  A New price plateau?

Nope.. once they refilled supplies they were kind of back to ho hum.. and Crude Crashed going into the end of that Decade.. we bought farm diesel in 99 for less than a buck.

Reports are that China has offered state reserves.. selling out of the offerings.. now buyers are not taking all that is offered.
China.. since they control imports.. is restocking it's reserves.. and modulating things.. placating Trump while holding inflationary pressures down..

...buying the low.

again.. just like in 96..  ??

opinions?

96 wasn't the start of a new era.. that occurred when China entered the WTO.. contrary to our current fearless Leader's prognostications..

Trade has been VERY GOOD for some of us in the US.

Probably China is just stocking up now.. If Trump is elected.. they can slam the door again.. maybe it's not some big conspiracy...  Maybe Commodities got Cheap and China covered.. you know.. just business.

They may not like Trump.. but they aren't crazy.