So we're only two weeks into the new marketing year.  Even though Ethanol production was down this past week we are slowly improving over time but like the economy in general.. not firing on all cylinders yet.

Ethanol production at 926 k bbls/day is down 7.8% vs the first two weeks last year.  Ethanol blended at 845 k bbls/day is down 8.7% YoY.  We are importing some.. probably from Brazil and the Implied exports and other domestic is decent up over a third across two weeks which is a small data set.

Even with sanitizer Total Disappearance is down about 3.8% vs a year ago as domestic gasoline disappearance is down 10%.  The Ethanol percentage blended (over two weeks) is actually a bit higher at 9.93% vs 9.8%

The other bright spot is that ethanol stocks are down 13% which should keep ethanol prices firm.

So in summary the industry is still recovering from the Covid Shocks.. Industry wide we are running at 80.5% vs 88% a year ago thus we are losing about 3.6 myn bushels per week or around 188 myn bushels for the year vs last year.

The WASDE has Last year's grind around 4.855 byn bushels with an expected increase this year to 5.2.  I assume that we continue to recover vs last year..  And barring any more Covid events.. we should close that gap somewhat.. depending upon profitability which is nothing fantastic right now.  I could see a reduction in expected grind for the next WASDE.. but Last spring was a pretty big hole as production fell to 50% the month of April.. so..???

Another piece of Good news is the Trump administration refusing the Gap year SRE's.

Cheers.

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

Ethanol Supply and Disposition https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_SUM_SND_A_EPOOXE_MBBL_M_CUR.htm

US Grains Council update  https://grains.org/ethanol_report/ethanol-market-and-pricing-data-september-16-2020/