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Selling 21s crop
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Happy First Timer
Posted 9/16/2020 21:27 (#8499802)
Subject: Selling 21s crop


I have been reading some posts where guys are asking about pricing some 21 crop on this rally. It seems that the last few years selling some crop a year out has been some of the better prices. With that being said, all winter we heard talk of 97 million acres of corn. Obviously we only planted 92 and without the derecho and mid to late season dryness i just cant see why corn wouldnt have gone to sub $3. My question is what is going to keep us from from planting 97 million next year and sub $3 corn? It doesnt appear that demand has changed all that much. Does a December 21 futures price of $ 3.89 make sense fundamentally with 2.2 to 2.5 bb carryout? Without another major weather event given the carryover 3.89 on the board and catching a positive .10 or .15 basis puts a fella at $4. Thats not a bad place to start pricing some corn in my opinion.

Beans are always a wildcard with huge exports to china and a SA drought. However, in the last year or so if someone told me i could book November beans for $9.67 i would have signed the paperwork with both hands. This year, something just feels different with the beans. I feel like there is a little more room for them to run until the combines prove the beans are or arent there. If the chinese start canceling loads then i am sure price will head south in a hurry.

Thoughts?
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