Posted 9/13/2020 07:38 (#8492352) Subject: China and the swine flu
Believe it or not, if my sources are correct the swine flu actually dramatically increased China meal demand.
Here is why, my percentages may be off but the jest is accurate, 25% of China hogs are raised by the large corporate hog conglomerates. 55% are raised by farmers that have 50-1000 head. The rest are raised by backyard farmers. Prior to asf only the corporate farms and a few of the 50-1000 head farms were feeding soymeal as part of their ration.
When asf kicked in and a portion of the herd died or was destroyed the profit per head jumped to over 200 dollars. This caused 2 things to happen as their market reacted to the new economics of 200 dollar a head profits.
1. They began feeding their hogs to 350 pounds
2. Almost every hog farmer started using meal in the ration to get hogs fat as fast as possible.
If you look at China soybean demand through asf and corona they had a much smaller hiccup than most expected.