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S Illinois | Ok I see where your 5 bu difference is coming from now. It isn't quite the "more than year later" scenario. The Feb 2019 report(gov shutdown in Jan) was 2.5bu below the Nov report. This was down 5bu from the high estimate for the 2018 crop made in Sept 2018. No change has been made to 2018 corn yield since that Feb 2019 report(really the Jan).
The bigger miss and a much larger influence on price was the change in ending stocks. Sept 2018 had ending stocks estimated at 1.774bb. Feb 2019 was 1.735bb. Final carryout was 2.221bb. So if the USDA had been correct with final usage for the 2018 crop, the Sept 2018 S&D would have had ending stocks at over 3 billion vs the 1.774bb. | |
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carryout
