NW Ia | Joe R - 8/3/2020 20:08
I completely understand what you are saying. But on the flip side....you have to agree with my theory. It is mathematically and scientifically impossible to guess national yield within 5bu. But yet this whole dang market revolves around what they print. When they print a change of +/- 2 bu from previous reports it completely shocks the market.....limit up/limit down. But in reality it is impossible to predict yield that close.
I don't like Darrin Newsome, but I agree what he said a year or two ago on MTM. The usda has no idea and it really doesn't matter anyways what they say it is. Two years ago I think if I'm not mistaken we went from 178 to 176 at harvest down to a final 172 ish a year later and that was a really good growing year just 2 years ago. Its also funny to me that every farmer I have ever met cleans his bins out every year no matter what and the corn is always used up yet the USDA and traders paint a picture as if we won't be able to get rid of it but we always do and will. Wether they say we will have 1 billion or 3 billion stocks left over we will clean out our bins take it to town and Darrin was right it didn't matter all along what the Usda says it just changes our price. |
Question about FC Stone and other yield predictors
