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Corn stocks and production
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Skyfish
Posted 7/10/2020 13:13 (#8365398)
Subject: Corn stocks and production



Central IA
My simple take on the the corn numbers.

As we sit now, we are predicting that we'll have 2,648 million bushel(MBs) carry for 2020-2021
We will have 2,200 MBs this year before harvest starts.

That tells me very, VERY, little premium for risk in market.

2020-2021 the USDA id figuring ~84 million acres and ~178 bushels. That makes an even 15,000 MBs of production.
If it gets down to 172 bushels an acre, take off 550 MBs, still about 2,100 MBs. Not much premium yet.
Down to 169, okay maybe some. But it will be next year IMO.
Still on production. North half Iowa, Minnesota and S Dakota will be good, maybe great. I would bet NE will be good and northern half of Illinois. I guess what I'm saying is I would take the over on 172, probably on 174.

Lets not forget demand, most likely ethanol demand will be cut. Exports, let's see what price does and that includes strength of the dollar. It could go either way, so I'll leave along.

If that rain comes along for Illinois, the high may be in. But I don't think we have a chance at 3.80 Dec corn and getting slim on 3.70. I am in the D1 area of Iowa, so far I'd say we are good-excellent. Rain needed, but maybe tomorrow. But really, really want before grain fill. Just me rambling, but risk/reward needs to be looked at hard.

I'm sure there will be poor areas, possibly far eastern corn belt, MO and KS. Basis will do the main work, but watch S American imports east if corn is up and dollar is strong!
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