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JonSCKs
Posted 7/1/2020 08:59 (#8347137 - in reply to #8347084)
Subject: 2011 ??


Yal it wasn't such a big deal when we had so much supply but since that went "poof" yesterday now we need every acre.. and it's Hot and DRY out here to my west.. 

Doubtful that the dryland sorghum crop is gonna be much in the panhandles.. and from Tx to Nebraska we are being pushed hard on the irrigated.. 

Gro's model above came in at 162.5.. Yal I don't believe that either.. but I could see a sub 170 number..

We went from 3.5 bil carryout yesterday to 2.5.. add 200 from stocks gains.. see my post above why that's bullish.. takes us to 2.7'ish.. but cut yield a billion and all of a sudden.. we're back to where we were last year around $4.50

NOT Saying that is Going to Happen!!!

.. but doesn't look good for Sub $3 corn now.. or frankly sub $3.5 at this point.. probably will retest $4 here at some point.. 

... and the funds are short.. so.. could come pretty fast..???

I don't see Fall Prices being this low.. by the time we get there.. $3.8 to $4 board looks "probable" to me now..

IF.. we get ethanol back up and running.. et all.. feed usage etc..

jmho.. could be wrong.

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