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Northwest Iowa | If you look at CME group from the current trading month, July 2020, all the way out to nov 2022 the highest month is trading at 8.85 (July and August of 2022) and the lowest month is at 8.69 (September 2020). That’s only a .16 difference or less between any contract for the next 2 1/2 years or growing seasons. Last year there was carry from nov 19 to nov 20 for .38 in just a 12 month timeframe. I’ve asked a lot of people and nobody seems to know but what it is telling us a year or 2 out that their isn’t any carry from current levels like in the past (aka the nov 19 to nov 20 for .38 last year)? Every time beans go down it seems the contract months on 2021 and 2022 go down the same amount which is odd to me. Usually we hold some premium on months further out. So what does the lack of carry mean?
Seems odd to me but is their that much bearish sentiment out there that we won’t be shipping beans? At this rate I don’t know much longer guys can plant beans at 8.80 futures with a high 7 or low 8 cash price. Early 2018 had good chances to sell at good levels for that fall but since the tariffs went into place in July/August of 2018 we haven’t come close to selling a decent levels and doesn’t look like the future either based on spreads....
Edited by Sheep Farmer 6/24/2020 05:57
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What does it mean with the lack of carry amongst bean contracts?
