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Central IA | I'll give you my take. Beans, I'm more optimistic on beans than corn, but beans need some good news. Better exports, weather scare, something to forecast carry out to get just a bit tight. That being said, I would NOT wait for 9.80 on the board to sell. I don't think we get to 9.55 and I'm starting to think that a 9.40 would be lucky this year. I would bet if your not sold by July 4th(+/- a few days) that your not going to be happy.
Corn, you did well selling ahead. I was talked out twice last year selling Dec 2020 at 4.20, need to listen to my gut not the $5.00 corn people. I did make a few small sales in the 4.05 range. But, I don't think this weeks report will be friendly to corn. I would guess it will be at least within a million acres of planting intentions. I think beans will be high too.
Beans just need carry out to shrink, I would think 9.40 or so is it this year. Yea, sucks.
Corn, just a little news hear or there. Get the shorts nervous and a little bump, take advantage. It will not last long, I'm pretty sure the chance to sell $4 corn is gone this year. I really thought we would take out 3.50 and get to 3.60. But that 3.48 range has been a ceiling so far.
I know its simple but gives you what I'm thinking. Puts and calls(I'm not the one for advise on those) or rolling the HTA's out and working when local basis is saying deliver is the way this year.
The good rains the last few days didn't help the weather scare for July. Oh, I only received .1" so far. But enough fell that the national crop is good for awhile. | |
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New crop soy ideas
