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Carry in corn
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stevr13
Posted 6/10/2020 08:24 (#8307108 - in reply to #8307063)
Subject: RE: bullish scenario


Northeast Iowa
The ship hasn't sailed!

Our long term forecast has the weather scare in it this last half of June. After today, no rain. Not for weeks. High pressure system coming in with a ridge parked in Northern iowa somewhere.

That means no rain in Iowa, Southern MN, Western Illinois until it scrams.

How long does it stay parked? How will this market react with spec funds short 250 or 275k contracts? Surely farmer selling will offset them when that time comes, but I could see our front month corn price being positively affected 30 cents or so.

Stay dry into July? Thats what it is gonna take. What will it look like with a swing in the spec market from -275k to +200k?

I cant say this is what is going to happen, but I always worry when these ridges and high pressure systems sit on top of my farm (which it is forecasted to do)



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