Posted 5/20/2020 06:50 (#8268812 - in reply to #8268752) Subject: RE: KST1 dec20 to dec21 spread
I'm glad it worked out for you AJ. I try to be helpful here, I've learned a ton and I want others to learn. Seems like guys that can help a lot of times will get caught up in their ego and takes away from what they can add. We can all be better farmers if we learn from each other in places like this.
As for the next move, I'm tempted to reverse the spread and buy Dec 20- sell Dec 21. We saw a huge move this time last year on the same trade but I don't think we see anything like that this year with 80% of the corn planted and off to a decent start in so many places. If that spread has upside, it is from the continued dwindling of the Dec 21 price. I'm afraid as it has come down with the small rally in July 20 we've already seen the spread tighten to a decent place for the next move. Unfortunately that's probably a move lower in the July, although my confidence in that move isn't very high. Rallies are to be sold, not bought for producers.