AgTalk Home
AgTalk Home
Search Forums | Classifieds (41) | Skins | Language
You are logged in as a guest. ( logon | register )

Simplifying the corona numbers
View previous thread :: View next thread
   Forums List -> Kitchen TableMessage format
 
cfdr
Posted 4/22/2020 14:36 (#8209434 - in reply to #8209153)
Subject: RE: Simplifying the corona numbers


There is just such a lack of data - data that is usable, at least. The AMA has been reported to advise hospitals to attribute any death that can be assigned to the virus as being caused by the virus. My son works as a biostatistician, and he says this makes it impossible to have meaningful data. When it comes to concluding anything about the death rate for this virus, we don't know even the numerator or the denominator. How many deaths really caused? We need to infer from past years data. What should the denominator be? There is more and more information coming out that the total number of people infected with the virus has been massively undercounted. At least with the denominator, as time goes on, we should get a more accurate estimate. Inferring current deaths - that are really due to this virus - will always be problematic. So far the conclusion seems to be that the death rate has been grossly overstated. It does, however, seem to affect mostly the old and vulnerable. I read where it is somewhat like HIV, in that it attacks the T cells, and older people have fewer T cells. These are the cells that attack viruses.

Meanwhile, damage is being done. Just with hogs, cumulative shutdowns now are about 15% of capacity - in the Iowa/Minnesota/South Dakota area. Just in that area this means about 60k hogs per day need to find new homes. This is expected to result in massive numbers of piglets killed, as there is nowhere for them to go. The beef industry has these problems too. The pigs and the cattle that cannot be handled will probably keep putting on weight. The end result, of course, is liquidation. And, the end result of that is higher prices - assuming we don't see massive demand destruction for meat.
Top of the page Bottom of the page


Jump to forum :
Search this forum
Printer friendly version
E-mail a link to this thread

(Delete cookies)