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| I think the emergency oil meeting tomorrow will be a dud. I can't imagine G20 oil ministers, OPEC cartel reps, and Russia will be able to accomplish enough of a production cut to satisfy the oil market. I think they will "agree to further discussions" and that will be the rug pull event that sends everything a little lower going into the weekend (markets closed on Good Friday) and further weakness to start next week.
I was looking for a 50% retracement of this entire move lower on ES and NQ (from all-time-high to March 23 low).... We're close. NQ is there now, ES is close. Maybe a little higher on oil meeting hopium today and tonight, then rug pull when the bad oil meeting news hits the wire. I don't think it will be a bloodbath, just some back and fill action to maybe ~7650ish on NQ and ~2550ish on ES.
Even if the oil peeps can agree to the 10-15M bpd cuts, I think we've already priced in some of that.... the US oil producers are already announcing massive cap-ex reductions, and the rig count survey suggests they are laying down drilling rigs. It's amazing how quickly the oil guys respond to market prices. Wish there was more of that in Ag!! lol.... oh well.
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Deadcat Dow
