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Why I believe Corn Acreage will fall to.. 91.5'ish myn Acres.
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JonSCKs
Posted 4/8/2020 09:37 (#8173418)
Subject: Why I believe Corn Acreage will fall to.. 91.5'ish myn Acres.


Farmdoc has a good summary on last year's situation..   This is from Last August.. so there's fresher data but this will give you the picture.

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2019/08/perspectives-on-2019-corn-and-soybean-acres-impact-of-prevent-plant.html

The Farm Service Agency (FSA) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture released county acreages for crops and prevent plantings based on acreage reports filed by farmers.  Even though prevent plant totaled 19 million acres in the United States, planted corn acres in 2019 are only slightly lower than 2018 values.  With notable exceptions, corn acres decreased in counties that had large areas of prevent planting and increased in acres with little prevent planting.  Soybean acres fell over the vast majority of counties in the United States.

FSA Acreage Data



...

Prevent Planting and Corn Acre Changes

Figure 1 shows prevent plant acres as a percent of total reported acres.  As can be seen in Figure 1, most counties in the country had less than 1% of their acres reported as prevent plant.  Prevent plant predominates in the corn belt, with the notable exception of northern and central Iowa.  Prevent plant also occurred in the upper Midwest, eastern seaboard, and in the Mississippi delta.  The following states have at least one county with over 24% of their acres as prevent plant: Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and Wisconsin.



Figure 2 shows the percent change in corn acres between 2018 and 2019 for those counties with at least 20,000 acres planted to corn in 2018.  Overall, corn acres in 2019 are down by 1% from 2018 values.  There were geographical dimensions to changes.  Many counties in North Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and the lower Mississippi Delta increased corn acres by more than 15% (see Figure 2).  Those 15% increases occurred in counties that typically had very low prevent plant acres.

...

As you can See North Dakota and Kansas SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED Dryland (and some irrigated) Corn Acres in response to the Price incentive last year..  Kansas has DOUBLED Corn acreage since 2004.. we have around 1.8 million irrigated Corn Acres..

Here are my REAL WORLD response to Western Kansas Dryland Corn acreage.

"In 2018 we grew 135 bu Dryland corn.. that works.. so in 2019 we increased it.. especially with the rally.. we plant it LATE.. May through June.. as we want it to pollinate and fill POST HEAT.. it made 70.. that sucks.. and now the price is a DOLLAR LOWER.. THAT REALLY SUCKS!!  Skip that.  We're cutting our dryland acres in HALF or Completely."  And going to Sorghum or Summer Fallow for 2021 wheat acres.

So I guesstimate that we will lose around 2.5 myn corn acres to this.. plus around 1.5 myn to PP for 2020 as well as 1.5 myn will flex to soybeans..

JMHO
I could be wrong.

Here's my (hopefully updated.. best I can do..) table.

 US Crop Acreage                   
 NASSPlanted acreage                  
 Corn20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020   
                      
 Al         320300260330250255320370   
 Az         85757595658090100   
 AR320240190560440410390500710880540460760620660770800   
 CA         600520440420430430460440   
 CO1,2001,1001,0001,2001,2501,1501,3301,4001,4201,2201,1501,1001,3401,4601,4601,5501,6501,400-250 
 Ct         2726262524232323   
 De         180175170170180170185170   
 Fl         115758080759590100   
 Ga         510350330410290325395440   
 Id         350320280340340350385400   
 IL11,75012,10011,30013,20012,10012,30012,60012,50012,80012,00011,90011,70011,60011,20011,00010,50011,300   
 IN5,7005,9005,5006,6005,7005,7005,9005,9006,2506,0005,9005,6505,6005,3505,3005,0005,800   
 IA12,70012,80012,60014,30013,30013,70013,40014,20014,20013,60013,70013,50013,90013,30013,20013,50014,100   
 KS3,1003,6503,3503,7003,8503,8004,8505,1004,7004,3004,0504,1505,1005,5005,4506,40063005100-1,200 
 KY1,2101,2501,1201,4201,2101,2201,3401,4401,6501,5301,5201,4001,5001,3201,3301,5501,500   
 LA420340300750520700510570540680400400620500460570680   
 Me         3131313131302928   
 Md         480500440460480440510500   
 Ma         1616161615141416   
 MI2,2002,2502,2002,5002,4002,4002,4002,5502,6502,6002,5502,3502,4002,2502,2502,0002,500   
 MN7,5007,3007,3008,2007,7007,7007,7008,1008,7508,6008,2008,1008,4508,0507,9007,8008,400   
 MS460380340930720730750810820860510510750520480660710   
 MO2,9503,1002,7003,5002,8003,1003,1503,2503,6003,3503,5003,2503,6503,4003,5003,2003,600   
 Mt         120130105115115115115135   
 NE8,2508,5008,1009,1008,8009,4009,15010,00010,0009,9509,3009,4009,8509,5509,60010,10010,50010,100-400 
 NJ         9085808077131517   
 NM         120125125120125135145135   
 NY9809909501,0601,0901,1001,0501,0401,1701,2001,1401,0801,1001,0001,0701,0201,180   
 NC8207507901,1009008609109008609308407901,0008909109901,050   
 ND1,8001,4101,6902,5002,5501,9002,0502,3003,6003,8502,8002,7503,4503,4203,1503,50032003,100-100 
 OH3,3503,4503,1504,0003,3003,4003,4503,5003,9003,9003,7003,5503,5503,4003,5002,8003,700   
 OK         370320310400350310370400385-15 
 OR         8080658085758085   
 PA1,4001,3501,3501,4501,3501,3501,3501,4001,4601,4801,4601,3401,4001,3501,3001,4501,480   
 SD4,6504,4504,5005,0004,7505,0004,5505,2006,1506,2005,8005,4005,6005,7005,3004,35060005,700-300 
 TN         8909207808807507209701,040   
 TX1,8302,0501,7602,1002,3002,2002,3001,9501,8502,3502,2502,3002,9002,4502,2002,5002,7002,500-200 
 VA         510500450490500485540540   
 WA         190215170170170165170200   
 WI3,6003,8003,6504,0503,8003,7503,9004,1504,3504,1004,0004,0004,0503,9003,9003,8003,900   
                    -2465fringe
 Total80,93081,75978,32792,88885,98287,03588,19292,28297,15595,36590,56788,01994,00490,16788,87189,70096,990 -1,500PP 20
Avg Price$2.06$2.00$3.04$4.20$4.06$3.55$5.18$6.25$6.89         -1,500Switch to Beans
Total Acreage322,329317,802318,610320,369324,819319,250316,694315,143326,320318,340319,578318,975319,244318,340319,305302,626319,088   
                    91,525 








Edited by JonSCKs 4/8/2020 09:51
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