| Farmdoc has a good summary on last year's situation.. This is from Last August.. so there's fresher data but this will give you the picture.
https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2019/08/perspectives-on-2019-corn-and-soybean-acres-impact-of-prevent-plant.html
The Farm Service Agency (FSA) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture released county acreages for crops and prevent plantings based on acreage reports filed by farmers. Even though prevent plant totaled 19 million acres in the United States, planted corn acres in 2019 are only slightly lower than 2018 values. With notable exceptions, corn acres decreased in counties that had large areas of prevent planting and increased in acres with little prevent planting. Soybean acres fell over the vast majority of counties in the United States.
FSA Acreage Data
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Prevent Planting and Corn Acre ChangesFigure 1 shows prevent plant acres as a percent of total reported acres. As can be seen in Figure 1, most counties in the country had less than 1% of their acres reported as prevent plant. Prevent plant predominates in the corn belt, with the notable exception of northern and central Iowa. Prevent plant also occurred in the upper Midwest, eastern seaboard, and in the Mississippi delta. The following states have at least one county with over 24% of their acres as prevent plant: Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and Wisconsin.
Figure 2 shows the percent change in corn acres between 2018 and 2019 for those counties with at least 20,000 acres planted to corn in 2018. Overall, corn acres in 2019 are down by 1% from 2018 values. There were geographical dimensions to changes. Many counties in North Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and the lower Mississippi Delta increased corn acres by more than 15% (see Figure 2). Those 15% increases occurred in counties that typically had very low prevent plant acres.
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As you can See North Dakota and Kansas SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED Dryland (and some irrigated) Corn Acres in response to the Price incentive last year.. Kansas has DOUBLED Corn acreage since 2004.. we have around 1.8 million irrigated Corn Acres..
Here are my REAL WORLD response to Western Kansas Dryland Corn acreage.
"In 2018 we grew 135 bu Dryland corn.. that works.. so in 2019 we increased it.. especially with the rally.. we plant it LATE.. May through June.. as we want it to pollinate and fill POST HEAT.. it made 70.. that sucks.. and now the price is a DOLLAR LOWER.. THAT REALLY SUCKS!! Skip that. We're cutting our dryland acres in HALF or Completely." And going to Sorghum or Summer Fallow for 2021 wheat acres.
So I guesstimate that we will lose around 2.5 myn corn acres to this.. plus around 1.5 myn to PP for 2020 as well as 1.5 myn will flex to soybeans..
JMHO I could be wrong.
Here's my (hopefully updated.. best I can do..) table.
| US Crop Acreage | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | NASS | Planted acreage | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Corn | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Al | | | | | | | | | | 320 | 300 | 260 | 330 | 250 | 255 | 320 | 370 | | | | | Az | | | | | | | | | | 85 | 75 | 75 | 95 | 65 | 80 | 90 | 100 | | | | | AR | 320 | 240 | 190 | 560 | 440 | 410 | 390 | 500 | 710 | 880 | 540 | 460 | 760 | 620 | 660 | 770 | 800 | | | | | CA | | | | | | | | | | 600 | 520 | 440 | 420 | 430 | 430 | 460 | 440 | | | | | CO | 1,200 | 1,100 | 1,000 | 1,200 | 1,250 | 1,150 | 1,330 | 1,400 | 1,420 | 1,220 | 1,150 | 1,100 | 1,340 | 1,460 | 1,460 | 1,550 | 1,650 | 1,400 | -250 | | | Ct | | | | | | | | | | 27 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 23 | | | | | De | | | | | | | | | | 180 | 175 | 170 | 170 | 180 | 170 | 185 | 170 | | | | | Fl | | | | | | | | | | 115 | 75 | 80 | 80 | 75 | 95 | 90 | 100 | | | | | Ga | | | | | | | | | | 510 | 350 | 330 | 410 | 290 | 325 | 395 | 440 | | | | | Id | | | | | | | | | | 350 | 320 | 280 | 340 | 340 | 350 | 385 | 400 | | | | | IL | 11,750 | 12,100 | 11,300 | 13,200 | 12,100 | 12,300 | 12,600 | 12,500 | 12,800 | 12,000 | 11,900 | 11,700 | 11,600 | 11,200 | 11,000 | 10,500 | 11,300 | | | | | IN | 5,700 | 5,900 | 5,500 | 6,600 | 5,700 | 5,700 | 5,900 | 5,900 | 6,250 | 6,000 | 5,900 | 5,650 | 5,600 | 5,350 | 5,300 | 5,000 | 5,800 | | | | | IA | 12,700 | 12,800 | 12,600 | 14,300 | 13,300 | 13,700 | 13,400 | 14,200 | 14,200 | 13,600 | 13,700 | 13,500 | 13,900 | 13,300 | 13,200 | 13,500 | 14,100 | | | | | KS | 3,100 | 3,650 | 3,350 | 3,700 | 3,850 | 3,800 | 4,850 | 5,100 | 4,700 | 4,300 | 4,050 | 4,150 | 5,100 | 5,500 | 5,450 | 6,400 | 6300 | 5100 | -1,200 | | | KY | 1,210 | 1,250 | 1,120 | 1,420 | 1,210 | 1,220 | 1,340 | 1,440 | 1,650 | 1,530 | 1,520 | 1,400 | 1,500 | 1,320 | 1,330 | 1,550 | 1,500 | | | | | LA | 420 | 340 | 300 | 750 | 520 | 700 | 510 | 570 | 540 | 680 | 400 | 400 | 620 | 500 | 460 | 570 | 680 | | | | | Me | | | | | | | | | | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 28 | | | | | Md | | | | | | | | | | 480 | 500 | 440 | 460 | 480 | 440 | 510 | 500 | | | | | Ma | | | | | | | | | | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 16 | | | | | MI | 2,200 | 2,250 | 2,200 | 2,500 | 2,400 | 2,400 | 2,400 | 2,550 | 2,650 | 2,600 | 2,550 | 2,350 | 2,400 | 2,250 | 2,250 | 2,000 | 2,500 | | | | | MN | 7,500 | 7,300 | 7,300 | 8,200 | 7,700 | 7,700 | 7,700 | 8,100 | 8,750 | 8,600 | 8,200 | 8,100 | 8,450 | 8,050 | 7,900 | 7,800 | 8,400 | | | | | MS | 460 | 380 | 340 | 930 | 720 | 730 | 750 | 810 | 820 | 860 | 510 | 510 | 750 | 520 | 480 | 660 | 710 | | | | | MO | 2,950 | 3,100 | 2,700 | 3,500 | 2,800 | 3,100 | 3,150 | 3,250 | 3,600 | 3,350 | 3,500 | 3,250 | 3,650 | 3,400 | 3,500 | 3,200 | 3,600 | | | | | Mt | | | | | | | | | | 120 | 130 | 105 | 115 | 115 | 115 | 115 | 135 | | | | | NE | 8,250 | 8,500 | 8,100 | 9,100 | 8,800 | 9,400 | 9,150 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 9,950 | 9,300 | 9,400 | 9,850 | 9,550 | 9,600 | 10,100 | 10,500 | 10,100 | -400 | | | NJ | | | | | | | | | | 90 | 85 | 80 | 80 | 77 | 13 | 15 | 17 | | | | | NM | | | | | | | | | | 120 | 125 | 125 | 120 | 125 | 135 | 145 | 135 | | | | | NY | 980 | 990 | 950 | 1,060 | 1,090 | 1,100 | 1,050 | 1,040 | 1,170 | 1,200 | 1,140 | 1,080 | 1,100 | 1,000 | 1,070 | 1,020 | 1,180 | | | | | NC | 820 | 750 | 790 | 1,100 | 900 | 860 | 910 | 900 | 860 | 930 | 840 | 790 | 1,000 | 890 | 910 | 990 | 1,050 | | | | | ND | 1,800 | 1,410 | 1,690 | 2,500 | 2,550 | 1,900 | 2,050 | 2,300 | 3,600 | 3,850 | 2,800 | 2,750 | 3,450 | 3,420 | 3,150 | 3,500 | 3200 | 3,100 | -100 | | | OH | 3,350 | 3,450 | 3,150 | 4,000 | 3,300 | 3,400 | 3,450 | 3,500 | 3,900 | 3,900 | 3,700 | 3,550 | 3,550 | 3,400 | 3,500 | 2,800 | 3,700 | | | | | OK | | | | | | | | | | 370 | 320 | 310 | 400 | 350 | 310 | 370 | 400 | 385 | -15 | | | OR | | | | | | | | | | 80 | 80 | 65 | 80 | 85 | 75 | 80 | 85 | | | | | PA | 1,400 | 1,350 | 1,350 | 1,450 | 1,350 | 1,350 | 1,350 | 1,400 | 1,460 | 1,480 | 1,460 | 1,340 | 1,400 | 1,350 | 1,300 | 1,450 | 1,480 | | | | | SD | 4,650 | 4,450 | 4,500 | 5,000 | 4,750 | 5,000 | 4,550 | 5,200 | 6,150 | 6,200 | 5,800 | 5,400 | 5,600 | 5,700 | 5,300 | 4,350 | 6000 | 5,700 | -300 | | | TN | | | | | | | | | | 890 | 920 | 780 | 880 | 750 | 720 | 970 | 1,040 | | | | | TX | 1,830 | 2,050 | 1,760 | 2,100 | 2,300 | 2,200 | 2,300 | 1,950 | 1,850 | 2,350 | 2,250 | 2,300 | 2,900 | 2,450 | 2,200 | 2,500 | 2,700 | 2,500 | -200 | | | VA | | | | | | | | | | 510 | 500 | 450 | 490 | 500 | 485 | 540 | 540 | | | | | WA | | | | | | | | | | 190 | 215 | 170 | 170 | 170 | 165 | 170 | 200 | | | | | WI | 3,600 | 3,800 | 3,650 | 4,050 | 3,800 | 3,750 | 3,900 | 4,150 | 4,350 | 4,100 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,050 | 3,900 | 3,900 | 3,800 | 3,900 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | -2465 | fringe | | Total | 80,930 | 81,759 | 78,327 | 92,888 | 85,982 | 87,035 | 88,192 | 92,282 | 97,155 | 95,365 | 90,567 | 88,019 | 94,004 | 90,167 | 88,871 | 89,700 | 96,990 | | -1,500 | PP 20 | Avg Price | $2.06 | $2.00 | $3.04 | $4.20 | $4.06 | $3.55 | $5.18 | $6.25 | $6.89 | | | | | | | | | | -1,500 | Switch to Beans | Total Acreage | 322,329 | 317,802 | 318,610 | 320,369 | 324,819 | 319,250 | 316,694 | 315,143 | 326,320 | 318,340 | 319,578 | 318,975 | 319,244 | 318,340 | 319,305 | 302,626 | 319,088 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 91,525 | |
Edited by JonSCKs 4/8/2020 09:51
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