|
| Sure. There are always reasons to be cautious.
But just like every other mass hysteria event, ASF too shall pass. The Chinese culled - what? - something like ~60% of their hog herd because of ASF?? And their domestic pork prices went up substantially because of those draconian measures. So now that they know the what, how, why, when of the problem, they will take measures to prevent that problem from occurring again. Or maybe not entirely prevent it, but at least make it so that the problem does not pose a systemic risk to their pork industry.
The Chinese are very quick learners, and they have an incredible ability to adapt to rapidly changing circumstances. They are gonna rebuild their herd; and knowing the Chinese, they will do it quickly. My guess is that they will *adopt [or if you're a China-basher: *steal] technology and make their pork industry more productive and efficient. They will use strict management practices to keep another ASF outbreak from occurring.... The question is whether or not the Chinese consumers will come back to pork? Or have the super high prices permanently destroyed demand? Regardless, more pigs in China = more corn + soya being fed..... and that's good.
Is ASF gone forever? No. Are there millions of people working on solutions to this and other problems? Yes. Should I be a doomer and only expect the worst? No. | |
|
corn
