Below is a generalized model for infectious disease flow. You will see this image with a web search.

Dig just a little deeper and you can find the Python code to go along with it. Then, begin scouring the Internet for the latest values for beta, gamma, R₀, and so forth. Run the model yourself -- both with and without social distancing as a factor -- and you will quickly understand the endgame. You want to keep that red (infected) curve low enough that you don't run out of hospital beds, while getting as many people as possible into that green (recovered) curve...to build herd immunity, and reduce the need for draconian measures later.

(Infectious disease model (full).JPG)

Infectious disease model (full).JPG (31KB - 37 downloads)