As I worked from my tractor cab yesterday.. while the rest of the state was supposed to "shelter in place."  The Radio reported that expected Covid19 cases will peak here in a few weeks.. about the time we are suppose to go to the field and plant.  I also watched trucks running back and forth from the Coop to the Ethanol plant.

We now have three ethanol plants.. as of last night.. all three had bids.. and I know that the one closest to me is selling it's Sorghum to China while refilling with Corn to run at a reduced rate.

The Market report interviewed analyst who report large parts of the economy shut down hurting Gasoline demand and in turn hurting ethanol.

Then they pivot to assuming 100% of 230 million acres will be planted without a hitch during the expected peak of Cases..

???

So which is it?

Reports this morning are that Trump talked to Putin about Energy issues.. (assuming that will include prices)  Trump is on record as saying that he will act when the time is appropriate.  Buying Crude Oil and Energy companies seems to be in flavor with some posts here on NAT.

Assumptions.

a) We will get through this

b) A significant portion of the crops will get planted

c) Crude oil will not remain at these low levels forever.

Given the drop in prices I am trimming my fertility budget.. who needs Potash?  Instead of a maintenance rate.. probably scale back and just band for pop up.. and then let the crop scavenge.. I noted that results from profitability from various producers.. A) produced 250 bu corn.. B) produced 180.. B was more Profitable than A.. who actually LOST $$$ last year when prices were higher..

If Corn prices are going down.. then inputs will follow and we can rebuild soil fertility in future cheaper input environments.

Ethanol is going to live on stocks for awhile so we expect a slower grind.. A lot depends upon what the EPA does.. RIN prices fell yesterday.. are they giving the Oil Refiners.. who now have Access to VERY CHEAP CRUDE oil a pass?

How can an Oil Company declare Force Majeur?

As Famers do we get to declare Force Majeur on our Diesel contracts?  Or other contracts which we find not favorable?

If the prices we receive are going to fall.. will we plant to maintain the yields or should we skimp on inputs?

Someone ELSE on another site was asking if they could claim Prevented plantings because of Covid19?  I didn't want to go there.. but if the Government wants us to risk our lives.. planting a crop in the middle of a pandemic.. that is not needed..??

What's the point?

At the elevator.. we had to "measure up" and insure that we had the bushels our customers delivered and on our books.. usually we deducted about 1/2 of 1% each month for the amount of grain which we turned.. ever notice the dust cloud coming from the top of the elevator when it is running.. into dust.  It worked out about right.. over time.. some years more turned to dust.. (2019) others were better crops..

Interestingly there is no such accounting in NASS's numbers.. even though every grain Warehouseman knows what "shrink" is.

Last September.. or August NASS added about 330 million bushels to Corn fed as feed or Residual error.. for the 2018 crop.. "shrink" in my opinion.

Golly if they did THAT much for 2018.. what is 2019 gonna look like with all it's issues..?  Wet low test weight.. poor dryland yields in the fringe.

When is NASS going to correct the slope of it's yield curve which was fitted during a time of MUCH HIGHER prices.. Will Corn yields increase at the same rate at $3 corn as it did at $7 corn?

Will Yields even increase at all or taper off? or even decline?

They do on my farm when I lower inputs.

NASS is going to give us a price signal today.. then we will respond.

I know the government has bigger issues than SRE's, Illegal Waivers and the future of commodity prices..  but for some of us.. it's what we do.

If we are going to bail out Oil Companies and put Crude in The Strategic Petroleum Reserve.. What about Ethanol plants?

When Crude Oil takes off.. Given that the REASON Crude Oil War is to DRIVE OUT the US Independent energy providers to restore market Power to OPEC.. Will we not need the US producers.. including Ethanol?

I guess in short..

Why are we doing this?

Should I just chuck my high input irrigated Corn program and go low input Sorghum and wait for sunnier days?

Should I even plant?

just file PP..??? 

Worry about getting my 88 year old father through this..

I'm ready.. and my intentions are to go make a crop.. but that's not what the market is signaling for me to do right now..

???