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Looks like the lady in Italy was right
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Posted 3/21/2020 19:19 (#8126597 - in reply to #8126035)
Subject: RE: Okay.... so add the details.....

GOOSEPILOT - 3/21/2020 15:12

That's the problem, your making a whole bunch of assumptions off very basic stats. That's dangerous in a situation like this. There is nothing in tgat statement that makes anyone take it seriously. What age died, how many have underlying health issues, etc.

I understand your viewpoint. If I were to be crass, I could say that if you contract CoVid 19 and died, you are nothing more than a statistical aberration. However, dead is dead. What you're not taking into account is the possibility of long-term or permanent disability as a result of the virus. Can't go out and climb into your tractor? That would be too bad. 

"There is still considerable uncertainty around the fatality rates of COVID-19 and it likely varies depending on the quality of local healthcare," said Francois Balloux, Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London.

"That said, it is around two percent on average, which is about 20 times higher than for the seasonal flu lineages currently in circulation."

Given the exponential curve of infection, if USA had 1 million people become infected, you're looking at 20,000 dead. In a country of 330 million, give or take, even if only 50% became infected (statistical range is 40-70%) , a 2% death rate would be roughly 6,600,000 people.

GOOSEPILOT - 3/21/2020 15:12
If this situation is truely as deadly as media is making this sound, why is not there serious official white house or governors breaking this news over the entire region and every news outlet? All we are hearing is a bunch of hired "experts" giving various degrees of educated opinions from every different media source.

That's a joke, right? Daily press conferences by the White House aren't enough for you? Parking two Navy hospital ships off the East and West Coast aren't enough or you? Turning automakers into ventilator makers isn't enough for you? My governor's been holding daily press conferences for at least 10 days, and held several even before they became daily. 

Part of the problem is the "hired experts" don't know what they don't know. They don't know how well (or not) people recover from this, what lung/major organ damage there may be. This is a whole new ballgame. 

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